
Tensions in the Korean peninsula are rising ever since the North tested a long-range rocket which the US and its allies Japan and South Korea say was a missile test but Pyongyang insists it to be a launch of a rocket to put a satellite into orbit. Things turned for the worst after the UN Security Council condemned the launch and North Korea vowed to walk out of the six-party talks with immediate effect citing the UN criticism as an ‘unbearable insult’ to the North Korean people.
The US has termed the North Korean actions as provocative while Pyongyang’s neighbours and closest allies China and Russia have called for ‘calm and restraint’ on both sides to get the North back into the negotiating table. Yet when it comes to dealing with the secretive Communist state strongly, both China and particularly Russia fall short of their responsibilities as key international players in diffusing the crisis.
Beijing is the North’s undisputed backer given the two countries’ ideological similarities and keeping the Korean crisis on the boil is in China’s geo-political agenda but Moscow’s role in the crisis is still being debated and many political quarters believe that Russia’s indifference to the crisis arises from the fact that things have changed dramatically for the Kremlin since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Russia is no more close to the regime of Kim Jong Il anymore as the country seeks to become a major player in the region keeping political equidistant between both the North and South Koreas.
Moscow is included in the six party talks that have been formed to stabilize the region yet China is being regarded as a much more productive partner in securing some sort of deal between Pyongyang, Washington and the international community.
Well, Russia can only be blamed for this indifference and the Kremlin is now more concerned about developments in its western borders rather than in the Far East where sparks can fly any moment and the first countries that would be engulfed in a refugee crisis will be Russia and China if hostilities do ultimately take place between the US and North Korea. A stable Korean peninsula is in the interests of Moscow and President Dmitry Medvedev, along with his predecessor and mentor Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, must ensure that Russian political, economic and military interests are kept safe in this ever lasting tug-of-war between communist North Korea and capitalist United States of America and the international community.
Russia’s role in the six-party talks can only be described as minor as Moscow is more concerned to look after its minimal interests that include dangers of the nuclear proliferation and the disastrous results of a sudden bloody collapse of Kim Jong Il’s DPRK. But Russia’s attitude to the crisis has to be flexible and more international community oriented. Former President Vladimir Putin briefly raised western eyebrows when he hosted the North Korean premier in 2001 and 2002 after making a landmark visit to Pyongyang in 2000 to raise questions of a renewed Russia-North Korea relationship. Yet, frankly that was the beginning of the end of hope as the North quickly realized the fact that the Russians cannot be compared to the Soviet Union when it comes to an unequivocal support for the communist state as it once used to be in the days of the red tape in Moscow.
Russia have pledged millions of dollars to invest in North Korea in infrastructural projects but the reality is those projects would take a lot of time to even get started given the logistical, bureaucratic and political problems within the North to do business. Many analysts believe that the millions of petro-dollars that Russia have invested already in the North might just have to be waived off given the difficulty in which the Moscow-Pyongyang economic ties have run into recently. Moscow want to build pipelines across the Korean peninsula and have taken steps to build transport links that for sure would be an uphill project to complete.
One must remember that Russia is no Soviet Union nowadays and it has to balance its international ties with the United States of America and the regional allies Japan and South Korea. Even though Moscow and Washington do not see eye to eye on many aspects, it cannot be denied that the US is Russia’s strategic partner, both economically and politically. Japan and South Korea are the biggest markets for Russian energy and Moscow would never like to sacrifice that for the sake of renewing post-Soviet ties with a rogue and chaotic regime like North Korea.
Russia has to balance China’s growing dominance of the North Korean crisis with a more reasonable and responsible handling of the situation. A nuclear North Korea is a serious threat to Russian security and the Kremlin must ensure that the Korean peninsula does not become a fireball ready to cause havoc in the Far East and Moscow’s re-emergence as a super power will only become a fact if the Dmitry Medvedev government helps its regional counterparts to diffuse the situation.
This is no political playground. It is a question of a dirty weapon getting into the hands of a desperate and ugly leader that has honestly nothing to lose. The recent crisis over the launching of the long range rocket is a sign that the North wants to test the newly elected American government along with the resilience of the other parties involved, Russia being one of them.
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